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[WEEKLY BIZ]日 최대 싱크탱크 노무라硏 기우치 수석 이코노미스트WEEKLY BIZ 뉴스레터 구독하기 ☞ https://page.stibee.com/subscriptions/146096지난 7월 28일 우에다 가즈오 일본은행 총재가 연 0.5%인 국채 10년물의 금리 변동 상한폭을 연 1% 수준까지는 용인하겠다는 계획을 밝혔다. 이에 따라 앞으로 일본의 금리가 오르고, 엔저(円低) 현상도 완화될 것이라는 관측이 나오고 있다. 하지만 변화가 시작하는 시점과 얼마만큼의 변화가 있을지는 안갯속에 있다. 경제 규모 세계 3위인 일본이 통화정책의 방향을 수정하면 세계 경제와 한국 경제에 미치는 영향도 작지 않다. 일본 통화 정책의 향후 경로를 가늠해보기 위해 WEEKLY BIZ는 일본 최대 싱크탱크인 노무라종합연구소를 이끄는 기우치 다카히데(木内登英·60) 수석이코노미스트를 화상으로 만났다. 기우치 다카히데 노무라종합연구소 수석이코노미스트는 WEEKLY BIZ 인터뷰에서 “앞으로 엔화 가치가 회복되면 엔화 강세가 주가를 5~10%가량 떨어뜨리는 악재로 작용할 수 있다”고 말했다./노무라종합연구소기우치 이코노미스트는 “일본은행이 대대적으로 통화정책을 수정할 것이며 그 시점은 내년 하반기 정도일 것”이라며 “현재 연 -0.1%인 단기금리를 0~0.1% 수준으로 올리는 것이 정책 수정의 핵심이 될 것”이라고 했다. 그는 이어 “(일본은행이) 금리를 높인다고 하더라도 긴축으로 방향을 전환하는 것이 아니라 그동안 과도했던 통화 완화정책을 정상화하는 정도일 것”이라며 “엔화 가치는 점점 상승하겠지만 (달러당) 110엔 선까지 돌아가려면 앞으로 2~3년은 걸릴 것”이라고 했다.기우치 이코노미스트는 와세다대 경제학과를 졸업하고 1987년부터 노무라종합연구소에서 일본·미국·유럽경제를 연구해왔다. 그는 2012년부터 5년 동안은 한국은행 금융통화위원에 해당하는 일본은행 정책위원회 심의위원을 맡아 직접 통화정책을 집행했다. “일본은행의 방향 전환은 내년 하반기”기우치 이코노미스트가 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