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오건영 신한은행 WM컨설팅센터 팀장이 5일 서울 중구 롯데호텔에서 열린 '서울경제 머니트렌드 2023'에서 글로벌 금융시장 이슈 점검을 주제로 강연하고 있다. 오승현 기자[서울경제] "올 하반기에는 인플레이션 고착화 문제가 주된 이슈가 될 것으로 보입니다. 중앙은행들은 고착화를 원하지 않기 때문에 고금리 상황이 생각보다 오래갈 것이라는 것이 하반기의 기본 시각입니다."오건영 신한은행 WM사업부 팀장이 5일 서울 소공동 롯데호텔에서 열린 '서울경제 머니트렌드 2023'에서 진행한 '글로벌 금융시장 이슈 점검' 강의를 통해 이같이 강조했다. 오 팀장은 올해 강연에서 글로벌 금융시장에서 가장 중요한 이슈인 환율과 금리, 그리고 인플레이션에 대한 자신의 생각과 전망을 친근하고 재미있는 사례를 통해 참가자들이 이해하기 쉽게 전달했다. 오 팀장은 오‘인플레이션에서 살아남기’ ‘부의 시나리오’ ‘부의 대이동’ ‘환율과 금리로 보는 앞으로 3년 경제전쟁의 미래’ 등 경제 분야 베스트셀러를 잇달아 저술했다. 특히 유튜브 등 사회관계망서비스(SNS)와 다수 방송 매체에 출연해 어려운 거시경제 이슈를 쉽게 풀어 설명하면서 '거시 경제 일타 강사', '갓건영' 등으로 불리고 있다. 오 팀장은 우선 현재 환율 시장 상황을 설명하고 원·달러 환율의 방향성과 달러 강세 등에 대해 전망했다. 지금까지 원·달러 환율은 미국의 기준 금리 인상이라는 단일 변수에 의해 결정됐지만 올 들어서는 기준 금리를 인상하는 상황에서도 환율이 하락하는 현상이 자주 재현되고 있다. 오 팀장은 "금리 인하가 올해 9월부터 혹은 연말부터 시작할 거라는 기대가 올 초 기준 금리 인상에도 환율을 끌어내린 요인이 됐다"며 "미 "하지만 최근 내년 5월부터 금리 인하가 시작되고 내년 말까지 인하폭도 종전 전망(2%포인트)보다 줄어든 1~1.25%포인트일 것이라는 전망이 나오면서 하루 하루 스토리가 바뀌고 있다"고 지적했다. 특히 환율 전망을 위해서는 무역수지를 잘 봐야 한다고 강조하면서 반도체 경기 회복과 중국의 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