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경직된 흐름 보이던 근원물가 전망치 상회했지만 둔화세 美 이달 0.25%p 인상 땐 한국과 2%p 차이 역대 최대 외환시장 변동성 확대 우려 6월 소비자물가 상승률이 21개월 만에 2%대를 기록, 인플레이션 압력이 크게 줄면서 한국은행이 오는 13일 예정된 금융통화위원회에서 네 차례 연속 기준금리를 동결할 것이란 전망에 무게가 실리고 있다. 인플레를 부추기던 석유류 가격이 역대 최대폭으로 하락한 데다 그간 경직적 흐름을 보이던 근원물가 상승률이 둔화하면서 서서히 물가 불씨가 잡히고 있다는 판단에서다. 다만 한국이 이달 기준금리를 동결하고 미국 연방준비제도(Fed)가 올해 하반기 중 기준금리를 0.25%포인트 인상한다면, 한·미 금리차가 역대 최대인 2%포인트에 달하기 때문에 향후 통화정책의 주요 변수로 떠오르고 있다.한은은 4일 오전 본관 16층 회의실에서 김웅 부총재보 주재로 열린 ‘물가 상황 점검회의’에서 "7월 소비자물가 상승률은 6월에 이어 둔화 흐름을 이어갈 것으로 예상되나 이후에는 다시 높아져 연말까지 3% 안팎에서 등락할 것"이라고 밝혔다. 석유류 가격이 큰 폭으로 하락한 기저효과로 6월 소비자물가 상승률이 예상대로 2%대로 둔화했고, 다음 달에도 둔화 흐름은 이어지겠지만 8월부터는 다시 3%대로 올라설 것이란 전망이다.물가 둔화세 뚜렷…근원물가는 상방 위험 한은은 6월 소비자물가 상승률이 2%대로 둔화하고 서비스 부문의 상승률이 둔화하면서 인플레이션 불씨가 서서히 잡히고 있는 것으로 판단했다. 다만 물가의 기조적 흐름을 보여주는 근원물가(식료품·에너지 제외지수) 상승률이 전망치를 상회하는 더딘 흐름을 이어가면서 향후 추이에 유의할 필요가 있다고 봤다. 김웅 한은 부총재보는 "6월 근원물가 상승률도 완만한 집세 둔화 흐름이 이어지는 가운데 개인서비스물가 오름폭 축소 등으로 예상대로 둔화폭이 확대됐다"며 "다만 근원물가는 완만한 둔화 흐름을 나타내는 가운데 지난 전망경로를 다소 상회할 가능성이 있다"고 언급했다.이달에는 근원물가 상승률이 전년 동월 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