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UBS도 뉴욕증시 '경계 목소리'메인스트리트 리서치 "곧 급락장 재개될 가능성도"매켄지 인베스트먼츠, 주식보다 채권 쪽에 관심 권고미국 증시의 과열을 지적하는 목소리가 심심찮게 나오고 있다. 지난달 초 미국 뉴욕증시의 S&P 500지수가 1948년 이래 가장 긴 약세장에서 탈출했지만, 이를 견인한 가시적인 상승은 오랫동안 지속하지 않을 수 있다고 UBS가 전망했다.스위스 최대 투자은행인 UBS는 지난 3일(이하 현지시간) 낸 분석 보고서를 통해 뉴욕증시가 올해 하반기에 몇몇 리스크에 직면해 소용돌이에 휘말릴 수 있음을 경고했다고 블룸버그통신이 4일 보도했다.최고투자책임자(CIO)들인 솔리타 마르첼리와 마크 해펠레 주도로 낸 보고서는 "세계와 미국 주식 모두 지난해 10월 저점보다 20% 이상 상승했고 하반기 전망은 더욱 어려워지고 있어, 투자자들로서는 올해 남은 기간 더 신통치 않은 성과에 대비해야 할 것"이라고 내다봤다.주식시장은 올해 들어 인공지능(AI)에 대한 큰 관심과 함께 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 인플레이션을 잘 잡아 경제 연착륙으로 잘 이끌 수 있다는 투자자들의 희망으로 좋은 성과를 기록했다.또 최근 경제 데이터는 10번의 연속적인 금리 인상에도 놀라울 정도로 회복력을 보여주고 있다는 것도 주지의 사실이다. 하지만 UBS는 성장이 둔화하고 인플레이션이 좀처럼 잡히지 않는 상황과 어긋나는 주식 가격 책정이 가능할지라도, 경제를 위협하는 요인들이 남아 있다고 우려했다.보고서는 "지속적인 근원 인플레이션의 리스크는 미국 금리가 더 오를 수 있고 그 수준에서 더 오래 유지할 수 있음을 의미한다"며 투자자들의 희망과 달리 연준이 금리 인상을 계속할 수 있다고 적었다.또 "게다가 더 높은 금리에 대한 두려움, 약간의 실망스러운 경제 지표 또는 시장 분위기의 변화 같은 것들이 미국의 성장 탄력성과 그 기반에 대한 낙관론을 빠르게 무너뜨릴 수 있다"고 덧붙였다.자산관리 회사 메인 스트리트 리서치의 창업자 겸 CIO인 제임스 데머트도 조만간 급격한 하락장이 다시 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