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반도체 재고지수 248.5로 역대 최고재고율 4월 265.8%로 최고점 찍고 소폭 하락감산에도 생산 석 달 째 증가…실질 감소까진 시간 걸려반도체 수출물량, 증가 전환…일부 제품 가격 상승증권가 "스마트폰 판매 감소 지속…삼전 더 감산해야" (사진=AFP)[이데일리 최정희 기자] 하반기 우리나라 경기 흐름을 좌우할 최대 변수로 반도체가 꼽히고 있지만 반도체를 둘러싼 긍정과 부정 신호가 혼재하고 있다. 삼성전자가 4월 감산을 결정했음에도 반도체 생산은 석 달째 증가하며 재고가 사상 최대 수준으로 높아졌다. 반면 반도체 수출 물량은 증가세로 전환하고 일부 가격은 상승하고 있다. 혼재된 신호 속에서 반도체 업황 전망의 불확실성은 커지는 분위기다. (출처: 통계청)◇ ‘감산’에도 재고가 쌓인다 30일 통계청이 발표한 5월 산업활동동향에 따르면 반도체 재고지수(계절 조정)는 248.5로 통계 작성이 이뤄진 1971년 1월 이후 최고 수준을 기록했다. 4월 241.9로 사상 처음으로 200을 넘은 후 두 달 연속 최고치를 경신한 것이다. 재고지수에서 출하지수를 나눠 백분율한 재고율은 널뛰기를 하고 있다. 출하가 전월비 47.4%나 급증했던 3월엔 재고율이 전월 250.4%에서 161.4%로 89%포인트 급락했으나 4월엔 출하가 21% 감소하자 재고율이 265.8%로 전월비 104.4%포인트 급등했다. 5월엔 출하가 19% 증가한 영향에 재고율은 229.5%로 36.4%포인트 하락했으나 여전히 높은 수준이다. 통계청에선 재고율은 분모인 출하에 따라 큰 폭의 변동성을 나타내고 있기 때문에 재고의 흐름은 재고 지수로 보는 것이 더 정확하다고 설명했다. 반도체 재고지수가 고공행진하면서 반도체 업황의 바닥 신호가 나타나고 있는 것인지에 대한 확신이 줄어들고 있다. 재고지수는 4월 전월비 30% 급등한 이후 5월에도 2.7% 상승하며 두 달 연속 상승세를 보이고 있다. 특히 삼성전자가 4월 감산을 하겠다고 발표한 이후로도 반도체 생산은 증가하고 있다. 반도체 생산은 3월 전월비 30. <a href="https://dahaeyo.co.kr/Facilities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">서울 설비</a> <a href="https://dahaeyo.co.kr/Facilities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">부산 설비</a> <a href="https://dahaeyo.co.kr/Facilities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">대구 설비</a> <a href="https://dahaeyo.co.kr/Facilities" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer 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