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ⓒ한국은행[데일리안 = 고정삼 기자] 미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 올 하반기 중 금리 인상을 종료하고 내년 상반기에는 인하에 나설 것이란 전망이 나온다.30일 한국은행은 '2023년 하반기 글로벌 경제여건 및 국제금융시장 전망' 보고서에서 이같이 밝혔다.미 연준은 이달 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC)에서 기준금리를 현 수준(5.00~5.25%)으로 동결했다. 하지만 올해 말 정책금리 전망 중간값을 5.6%로 0.5%포인트(p) 상향 제시했다.이에 따라 미 연준은 7월 FOMC 회의에서 기준금리 0.25%p를 추가 인상할 것으로 전망된다. 이로써 금리 인상 사이클이 종료되면서 연말 최종금리는 5.25~5.50%를 기록할 것으로 예측된다.장고 한은 운용전략팀 과장은 "물가 및 노동시장 압력의 둔화 속도가 아직 기대에 미치지는 못하지만, 누적된 통화정책 긴축 효과, 공급망 회복, 경기 침체 가능성 등으로 하반기 중 물가 압력이 어느 정도 진정세를 나타낼 것이란 전망에 근거한다"고 설명했다.다만 그는 "향후 물가가 예상보다 높은 수준을 지속할 경우 추가 금리 인상(0.25%p) 리스크도 여전히 남아있는 것으로 평가된다"며 "금리 인하는 내년 상반기 중 시작될 것으로 예상되지만, 구체적 시점은 물가 상승세 둔화 속도에 따라 정해질 것"이라고 내다봤다.미 연준 위원들의 향후 정책금리 점도표를 살펴보면 오는 2024년 말 4.6%, 2025년 말 3.4%로 나타났다.장 과장은 "2024년과 2025년 중 각각 1.0%p와 1.25%의 금리 인하 폭을 예상해 볼 수 있다"며 "대차대조표 축소(QT)의 경우 처음 발표한 계획대로 진행될 것으로 예상되며, 내년 중 금리 인하가 시작될 시기에 중단될 가능성이 높은 것으로 판단한다"고 말했다.. <a 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